The various so-called spaghetti models for Hurricane Dorian show the range of possible paths the storm could take. “On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday,” Senior Hurricane Specialist Lixion Avila wrote in the latest advisory. Hurricane-force winds were extending outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds were extending outward up to 105 miles. Still, some European tracks show an outside chance that Dorian will curl north, hugging the coast rather than making landfall in Florida. Forecasters warn that the models are likely to change in coming days and Dorian is still a threat to anywhere along Florida’s east coast between the Keys and Georgia. “Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.”Ī hurricane watch was issued overnight for the northwestern Bahamas.ĭuring the overnight hours there was increasing consensus between the European and American forecast models - putting Dorian somewhere in the vicinity of South to Central Florida. “Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the Florida east coast by early next week, but it is too soon to determine where the highest storm surge and winds will occur,” the hurricane center said in an 11 a.m. He said the storm could bring six to 10 inches of rain to some areas, with a few isolated ares experiencing 10 to 15 inches. Slow means a longer period of time to get those winds and saturate the soils. The storm was projected to continue to slow its forward motion, an ominous development that could subject areas in its path to a prolonged lashing from winds and rain. “The big question begins as it approaches the coastline. “All weekend it’s going to be moving slowly but surely toward South Florida,” he said. Molleda, of the National Weather Service in Miami, said South Florida should be prepared for a weekend of uncertainty. Or it could cross the peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. Or it could make landfall and then turn right, buzzing up the spine of Florida. If Dorian turns north early, it may not make landfall and instead just skim the east coast of the state. The cone of uncertainty, which shows possible locations of the storm’s center, looks more like a balloon than a cone when it reaches Florida, reflecting a lack of consensus on when the storm will turn north. Ken Graham, director of the hurricane center, said his scientists are still working out the forecast but that “a Category 4 storm like this striking Florida could produce a storm surge of 10-foot or greater.” The forecast cone for Hurricane Dorian at 2 p.m.
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